Triangulation of epidemiological evidence and risk of bias evaluation: A proposed framework and applied example using formaldehyde exposure and risk of myeloid leukemias.

Evidence triangulation may help identify the impact of study design elements on study findings and to tease out biased results when evaluating potential causal relationships; however, methods for triangulating epidemiologic evidence are evolving and have not been standardized. Building upon key principles of epidemiologic evidence triangulation and risk of bias assessment, and responding to the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine (NASEM) call for applied triangulation examples, the objective of this manuscript is to propose a triangulation framework and to apply it as an illustrative example to epidemiologic studies examining the possible relationship between occupational formaldehyde exposure and risk of myeloid leukemias (ML) including acute (AML) and chronic (CML) types. A nine-component triangulation framework for epidemiological evidence was developed incorporating study quality and ROB guidance from various federal health agencies (i.e., US EPA TSCA and NTP OHAT). Several components of the triangulation framework also drew from widely used epidemiological analytic tools such as stratified meta-analysis and sensitivity analysis. Regarding the applied example, fourteen studies were identified and assessed using the following primary study quality domains to explore potential key sources of bias: 1) study design and analysis; 2) study participation; 3) exposure assessment; 4) outcome assessment; and 5) potential confounding. Across studies, methodological limitations possibly contributing to biased results were observed within most domains. Interestingly, results from one study - often providing the largest and least-precise relative risk estimates, likely reflecting study biases, deviated from most primary study findings indicating no such associations. Triangulation of epidemiological evidence appears to be helpful in exploring inconsistent results for the identification of study results possibly reflecting various biases. Nonetheless, triangulation methodologies require additional development and application to real-world examples to enhance objectivity and reproducibility.

Systematic review of the association between talc and female reproductive tract cancers.

Talc is a hydrous magnesium sheet silicate used in cosmetic powders, ceramics, paints, rubber, and many other products. We conducted a systematic review of the potential carcinogenicity of genitally applied talc in humans. Our systematic review methods adhere to Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guidelines and incorporated aspects from the US Institute of Medicine (IOM, now the National Academy of Medicine) and several US EPA frameworks for systematic reviews, evaluating and integrating the epidemiological, animal, and mechanistic literature on talc and cancer. We conducted a comprehensive literature search. Detailed data abstraction and study quality evaluation, adapting the Toxic Substances Control Act (TSCA) framework, were central to our analysis. The literature search and selection process identified 40 primary studies that assessed exposure to talc and female reproductive cancer risks in humans (n = 36) and animals (n = 4). The results of our evaluation emphasize the importance of considering biological plausibility and study quality in systematic review. Integrating all streams of evidence according to the IOM framework yielded classifications of suggestive evidence of no association between perineal application of talcum powders and risk of ovarian cancer at human-relevant exposure levels. We also concluded that there is suggestive evidence of no association between genital talc application and endometrial cancer, and insufficient evidence to determine whether a causal association exists between genital talc application and cervical cancer based on a smaller but largely null body of literature.

Systematic review of the scientific evidence of the pulmonary carcinogenicity of talc.

We conducted a systematic review to assess the potential pulmonary carcinogenicity of inhaled talc in humans. Our systematic review methods adhere to Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guidelines and incorporated aspects from the US Institute of Medicine (IOM) and several United States (US) Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) frameworks for systematic reviews. A comprehensive literature search was conducted. Detailed data abstraction and study quality evaluation, adapting the US Toxic Substances Control Act (TSCA) framework, were central to our analysis. The literature search and selection process identified 23 primary studies that assessed exposure to talc and pulmonary cancer risks in humans (n = 19) and animals (n = 3). Integrating all streams of evidence according to the IOM framework yielded classifications of suggestive evidence of no association between inhaled talc and lung cancer and pleural mesothelioma at human-relevant exposure levels.

Cross-sectional Study of Workers Employed at a Copper Smelter-Effects of Long-term Exposures to Copper on Lung Function and Chronic Inflammation.

OBJECTIVE: The aim of the study was to assess the effect of exposure to copper-containing dust on lung function and inflammatory endpoints among workers of a German copper plant, effects rarely studied before. METHODS: One hundred four copper-exposed smelter workers and 70 referent workers from the precious metal and lead facilities were included, with different metal exposures in both groups due to the different process materials. Body plethysmography, exhaled nitric oxide (FeNO) measurements, and blood sampling were conducted in all workers. Smoking status and the use of respiratory protective equipment were considered. In a subgroup of 40 nonsmoking volunteers (28 copper-exposed and 12 referents), sputum biomarkers were assessed. RESULTS: Median lung function values of both copper-exposed and the referent groups were within reference ranges of "healthy" individuals, and statistical differences between the groups were mostly not evident. Similarly, differences in blood and sputum biomarkers were too small to be biologically relevant. CONCLUSION: The results suggest the absence of the detectable effects of copper-containing dust exposure on lung function or chronic inflammation within the investigated cohort.

Carcinogenicity of Poorly Soluble Low Toxicity Particles: Commentary on Epidemiology as a Risk Assessment "Reality Check".

Inhaled particles that are poorly soluble or insoluble and of low toxicity ("poorly soluble low toxicity" or "PSLT" particles), can accumulate in the lung and at lung overload levels induce lung cancers in rats. The question of whether PSLT particles increase lung cancer risk in humans is complicated by large differences between rats and humans and the relatively large particle doses administered in animal studies even when compared with heavy human occupational exposures. We review the findings of epidemiological studies on occupational exposure to each of three different PSLT particles (carbon black, talc and taconite). The epidemiological evidence indicates that at even very high occupational exposure levels at which non-malignant respiratory diseases including pneumoconiosis and even talcosis are observed, lung cancer risks appear not to be elevated. Although positive human cancer risks might be predicted based on extrapolation from overload doses in rats to relevant exposures in humans, the epidemiological "reality check" based on the three examples indicates that these PSLT particles are unlikely to increase lung cancer risk in humans even at high occupational levels of exposure. Therefore, we propose that careful evaluation of the epidemiological evidence can serve as a "reality check" for human risk assessment and help balance the risk evaluation process.

Systematic review of the scientific evidence on ethylene oxide as a human carcinogen.

Ethylene oxide is a highly reactive chemical primarily used as an intermediate in chemical production and as a sterilant of medical equipment and food products; it also is produced endogenously as a result of physiological processes. We conducted a systematic review of the potential carcinogenicity of inhaled ethylene oxide in humans using methods that adhere to PRIMSA guidelines and that incorporate aspects from the Institute of Medicine (IOM) (now the National Academy of Medicine) as well as several US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) frameworks for systematic reviews. After a comprehensive literature search and selection process, study quality was evaluated following a method adapted from the EPA Toxic Substances Control Act (TSCA) framework. The literature screening and selection process identified 24 primary studies in animals or humans and more than 50 mechanistic studies. Integrating epidemiological, animal, and mechanistic literature on ethylene oxide and cancer according to the IOM framework yielded classifications of suggestive evidence of no association between ethylene oxide and stomach cancer, breast cancer and lymphohematopoietic malignancies at human relevant exposures. However, we acknowledge that there is additional uncertainty in the classification for lymphohematopoietic malignancies owing to a paucity of evidence for specific types of these tumors, each of which is a distinct disease entity of possibly unique etiology.

Underground salt and potash workers exposed to nitrogen oxides and diesel exhaust: assessment of specific effect biomarkers.

PURPOSE: Occupational exposure limits (OEL) for nitrogen oxides (NO, NO2) and diesel exhaust (EC-DPM) were reassessed by the German authorities in 2016/2017. We performed a clinical cross-sectional study among salt and potash underground workers exposed to these substances at relatively high levels to examine possible indicators of acute effects on workers' health. METHODS: We measured post- versus pre-shift differences in cardiovascular, inflammatory, immune, and respiratory effect biomarkers and assessed their associations with personal exposures measured during the same shift. We also compared post- versus pre-shift differences in biomarker levels between exposure groups defined based on work site and job type. RESULTS: None of the above-ground workers exceeded the OEL for NO2 and only 5% exceeded the OEL for EC-DPM exposure. Among underground workers, 33% of miners and 7% underground maintenance workers exceeded the OEL for NO2; the OEL for EC-DPM was exceeded by 56% of miners and 17% of maintenance workers. Some effect biomarkers (thrombocytes, neutrophils, MPO, TNF-α, IgE, FeNO) showed statistically significant differences between pre- versus post-shift measurements; however, there were no consistent associations between pre- and post-shift differences and exposure group or personal exposure measurements during the shift. CONCLUSIONS: We did not find evidence of associations between workplace exposure to NO, NO2 or EC-DPM and clinically relevant indicators of acute cardiovascular, inflammatory and immune, or respiratory effects among salt and potash underground workers in Germany.

Lost in the woods: Finding our way back to the scientific method in systematic review.

Systematic review has become the preferred approach to addressing causality and informing regulatory and other decision-making processes, including chemical risk assessments. While advocates of systematic reviews acknowledge that they hold great potential for increasing objectivity and transparency in assessments of chemicals and human health risks, standardizing and harmonizing systematic review methods have been challenging. This review provides a brief summary of the development of systematic review methods and some of the frameworks currently in use in the US and Europe. We also provide an in-depth evaluation and comparison of two "competing" US EPA systematic review frameworks, informed by the constructively critical recommendations from the US National Academies of Science, Engineering and Medicine. We conclude with suggestions for moving forward to harmonize systematic review methods, as we believe that further criticism of individual available frameworks likely will be unproductive. Specifically, we issue a call to action for an international collaboration to work toward a blueprint that embraces the most scientifically critical elements common to most systematic review frameworks, while necessarily accommodating adaptations for specific purposes. Despite the array of available systematic review methods, it is clear that there is a shared goal and desire to promote objective assessment and synthesis of scientific evidence informing globally important issues regarding disease causality and human health risk evaluation.

A Health Surveillance Study of Workers Employed at a Copper Smelter-Effects of Long-Term Exposure to Copper on Lung Function Using Spirometric Data.

OBJECTIVE: Significantly lower permissible occupational exposure limits for copper dust are being discussed in Europe and other jurisdictions. However, little data are published on exposures in occupational settings and copper-specific effects in humans. Hence, a health surveillance study was performed among workers employed at a copper smelter between 1972 and 2018. METHODS: Possible effects of long-term exposures to dust containing copper on lung function were assessed. Specifically, declines in forced expiratory volume in 1 second (FEV1) were compared between a copper-exposed and control group. Cumulative copper exposures were derived from historical airborne monitoring data. RESULTS: FEV1 declines among exposed and control never smokers were similar to a typical age-dependent decline of 29 mL/y. CONCLUSION: The study findings indicate that cumulative inhalable copper dust exposure averaging 4.61 mg/m3-years over an exposure duration of ∼22 years is not associated with adverse effects on lung function.

Integration of Evidence on Community Cancer Risks from Elongate Mineral Particles in Silver Bay, Minnesota.

The potential for cancer-related risks to community members from ambient exposure to elongate mineral particles (EMPs) in taconite processing has not been formally evaluated. We evaluated 926 ambient air samples including 12,928 EMPs (particle structures with length-to-width ratio ≥3:1) collected over 26 years near a taconite processing facility in Silver Bay, Minnesota. Eighty-two percent of EMPs were ≤3 µm in length and 97% of EMPs had an average aspect ratio <20:1. A total of 935 (7.3%) EMPs had length >5 µm and AR ≥3:1. Average ambient concentration of NIOSH countable amphibole EMPs over all years was 0.000387 EMPs per cubic centimeter (EMP/cm3 ). Of 12,765 nonchrysotile EMPs, the number of amphiboles with length and width dimensions that correlate best with asbestos-related carcinogenicity ranged from four (0.03%) to 13 (0.1%) and the associated ambient amphibole air concentrations ranged from 0.000003 to 0.000007 EMP/cm3 . After 65 years of taconite processing in Silver Bay, evidence of an increased risk of mesothelioma and lung cancer in community members who did not work in the taconite industry is lacking. The absence of an increased risk of asbestos-related cancer in the Silver Bay community is coherent with supporting evidence from epidemiological and toxicological studies, as well as ambient exposure data and lake sediment data collected in Minnesota Iron Range communities. Collectively, the data provide consistent evidence that nonasbestiform amphibole minerals lack the carcinogenic potential exhibited by amphibole asbestos.

Extended Analysis and Evidence Integration of Chloroprene as a Human Carcinogen.

ß-Chloroprene is used in the production of polychloroprene, a synthetic rubber. In 2010, Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) published the Integrated Risk Information System "Toxicological Review of Chloroprene," concluding that chloroprene was "likely to be carcinogenic to humans." This was based on findings from a 1998 National Toxicology Program (NTP) study showing multiple tumors within and across animal species; results from occupational epidemiological studies; a proposed mutagenic mode of action; and structural similarities with 1,3-butadiene and vinyl chloride. Using mouse data from the NTP study and assuming a mutagenic mode of action, EPA calculated an inhalation unit risk (IUR) for chloroprene of 5 × 10-4 per µg/m3 . This is among the highest IURs for chemicals classified by IARC or EPA as known or probable human carcinogens and orders of magnitude higher than the IURs for carcinogens such as vinyl chloride, benzene, and 1,3-butadiene. Due to differences in pharmacokinetics, mice appear to be uniquely responsive to chloroprene exposure compared to other animals, including humans, which is consistent with the lack of evidence of carcinogenicity in robust occupational epidemiological studies. We evaluated and integrated all lines of evidence for chloroprene carcinogenicity to assess whether the 2010 EPA IUR could be scientifically substantiated. Due to clear interspecies differences in carcinogenic response to chloroprene, we applied a physiologically based pharmacokinetic model for chloroprene to calculate a species-specific internal dose (amount metabolized/gram of lung tissue) and derived an IUR that is over 100-fold lower than the 2010 EPA IUR. Therefore, we recommend that EPA's IUR be updated.

Occupational exposure to formaldehyde and risk of non hodgkin lymphoma: a meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Formaldehyde, a widely used chemical, is considered a human carcinogen. We report the results of a meta-analyses of studies on the relationship between occupational exposure to formaldehyde and risk of non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL). METHODS: We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis according to international guidelines and we identified 12 reports of occupational populations exposed to formaldehyde. We evaluated inter-study heterogeneity and we applied a random effects model. We conducted a cumulative meta-analysis and a meta-analysis according to estimated average exposure of each study population. RESULTS: The meta-analysis resulted in a summary relative risk (RR) for NHL of 0.93 (95% confidence interval 0.83-1.04). The cumulative meta-analysis suggests that higher RRs were detected in studies published before 1986, while studies available after 1986 did not show an association. No differences were found between different levels of occupational exposure. Conclusions Notwithstanding some limitations, the results of this meta-analysis do not support the hypothesis of an association between occupational exposure to formaldehyde and risk of NHL.

Ethylene Oxide: Cancer Evidence Integration and Dose-Response Implications.

The International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) and the United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) classified ethylene oxide (EtO) as a known human carcinogen. Critically, both noted that the epidemiological evidence based on lymphoid and breast cancers was "limited," but that the evidence in animal studies was "sufficient" and "extensive" (respectively) and that EtO is genotoxic. The USEPA derived one of the highest published inhalation unit risk (IUR) values (3 × 10-3 per [µg/m3 EtO]), based on results from 2 epidemiological studies. We performed focused reviews of the epidemiological and toxicological evidence on the carcinogenicity of EtO and considered the USEPA's reliance on a genotoxic mode of action to establish EtO's carcinogenicity and to determine likely dose-response patterns. Higher quality epidemiological studies demonstrated no increased risk of breast cancers or lymphohematopoietic malignancies (LHM). Similarly, toxicological studies and studies of early effect biomarkers in animals and humans provided no strong indication that EtO causes LHM or mammary cancers. Ultimately, animal data are inadequate to define the actual dose-response shape or predict tumor response at very low doses with any confidence. We conclude that the IARC and USEPA classification of EtO as a known human carcinogen overstates the underlying evidence and that the IUR derived by USEPA grossly overestimates risk.

Considerations for refining the risk assessment process for formaldehyde: Results from an interdisciplinary workshop.

Anticipating the need to evaluate and integrate scientific evidence to inform new risk assessments or to update existing risk assessments, the Formaldehyde Panel of the American Chemistry Council (ACC), in collaboration with the University of North Carolina, convened a workshop: "Understanding Potential Human Health Cancer Risk - From Data Integration to Risk Evaluation" in October 2017. Twenty-four (24) invited-experts participated with expertise in epidemiology, toxicology, science integration and risk evaluation. Including members of the organizing committee, there were 29 participants. The meeting included eleven presentations encompassing an introduction and three sessions: (1) "integrating the formaldehyde science on nasal/nasopharyngeal carcinogenicity and potential for causality"; (2) "integrating the formaldehyde science on lymphohematopoietic cancer and potential for causality; and, (3) "formaldehyde research-data suitable for risk assessment". Here we describe key points from the presentations on epidemiology, toxicology and mechanistic studies that should inform decisions about the potential carcinogenicity of formaldehyde in humans and the discussions about approaches for structuring an integrated, comprehensive risk assessment for formaldehyde. We also note challenges expected when attempting to reconcile divergent results observed from research conducted within and across different scientific disciplines - especially toxicology and epidemiology - and in integrating diverse, multi-disciplinary mechanistic evidence.

Peak Exposures in Epidemiologic Studies and Cancer Risks: Considerations for Regulatory Risk Assessment.

We review approaches for characterizing "peak" exposures in epidemiologic studies and methods for incorporating peak exposure metrics in dose-response assessments that contribute to risk assessment. The focus was on potential etiologic relations between environmental chemical exposures and cancer risks. We searched the epidemiologic literature on environmental chemicals classified as carcinogens in which cancer risks were described in relation to "peak" exposures. These articles were evaluated to identify some of the challenges associated with defining and describing cancer risks in relation to peak exposures. We found that definitions of peak exposure varied considerably across studies. Of nine chemical agents included in our review of peak exposure, six had epidemiologic data used by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (US EPA) in dose-response assessments to derive inhalation unit risk values. These were benzene, formaldehyde, styrene, trichloroethylene, acrylonitrile, and ethylene oxide. All derived unit risks relied on cumulative exposure for dose-response estimation and none, to our knowledge, considered peak exposure metrics. This is not surprising, given the historical linear no-threshold default model (generally based on cumulative exposure) used in regulatory risk assessments. With newly proposed US EPA rule language, fuller consideration of alternative exposure and dose-response metrics will be supported. "Peak" exposure has not been consistently defined and rarely has been evaluated in epidemiologic studies of cancer risks. We recommend developing uniform definitions of "peak" exposure to facilitate fuller evaluation of dose response for environmental chemicals and cancer risks, especially where mechanistic understanding indicates that the dose response is unlikely linear and that short-term high-intensity exposures increase risk.

The epidemiologic evidence for elongate mineral particle (EMP)-related human cancer risk.

Epidemiologic research on the role of fibers and other elongate mineral particles (EMP) and human diseases including cancers has generated a large body of literature over the last decades: nevertheless, there remain some questions for which the scientific community appears unable to reach consensus. Reasons for genuine differences in opinion include (i) ways in which exposures have been classified; (ii) methodological limitations of the available studies, (iii) criteria for the interpretation of study results, including potential underlying biological mechanisms, and (iv) methodology for integrating the evidence. Various approaches have been proposed in recent years to address these issues, which will be illustrated using examples from asbestos, talc, taconite, synthetic mineral fibers and silicon carbide, with emphasis on potential carcinogenic effects. Potential solutions include improved exposure and outcome assessment - including use of biomarkers and other molecular approaches, consideration of potential confounding and other sources of bias, implementation of guidelines for study quality assessment and evidence evaluation and integration.

Cancer Risk Associated With Exposure to Bitumen and Bitumen Fumes: An Updated Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate whether cancer risks are increased among bitumen (asphalt) workers. METHODS: Systematic review and meta-analysis of cancer risks (lung, upper aerodigestive tract (UADT), esophagus, bladder, kidney, stomach, and skin) and bitumen exposure. Certainty in the epidemiological evidence that bitumen-exposed workers experience increased cancer risks was rated using Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation criteria. RESULTS: After excluding lower-quality studies, lung cancer risks were not increased among bitumen-exposed workers (meta-relative risk [RR] 0.94, 95% CI 0.74 to 1.20, eight studies). Increased risks of UADT and stomach cancers were observed (meta-RR 1.31, 95% CI 1.03 to 1.67, 10 studies and meta-RR 1.29, 95% CI 1.03 to 1.62, seven studies, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: Except for lung cancer, evidence for increased cancer risks among bitumen-exposed workers was judged to be of low certainty, due to inadequate exposure characterization and unmeasured confounders (coal tar exposure, smoking, and alcohol consumption).